스포츠배당
스포츠배당 7. Practical Example of Calculating Value
Let’s walk through a more detailed example:
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Matchup: Chicago Bulls vs. Los Angeles Lakers (NBA regular season game).
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Bookmaker Odds:
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Bulls: +140 (implied probability = 100 / (140+100) = 41.67%)
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Lakers: -160 (implied probability = 160 / (160+100) = 61.54%)
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Your Assessment:
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You analyzed recent performances, injury reports, and advanced statistics (like player usage rates, plus-minus metrics). You conclude that the Bulls have a 48% chance to win.
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Expected Value for Bulls:
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Probability of win (p_win) = 0.48
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Probability of loss (p_loss) = 0.52
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Net win for a $100 bet at +140 odds = $140
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Net loss = -$100
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EV=(0.48×140)+(0.52×−100)=67.20−52.00=+$15.20EV = (0.48 \times 140) + (0.52 \times -100) = 67.20 – 52.00 = +\$15.20
The EV is positive ($15.20 for every $100 bet in this hypothetical scenario). If your research is accurate, this would be classified as a value bet. Over time, such edges—while they might vary from game to game—are the foundation of a profitable betting strategy.