스포츠배당

스포츠배당

스포츠배당 7. Practical Example of Calculating Value

Let’s walk through a more detailed example:

  1. Matchup: Chicago Bulls vs. Los Angeles Lakers (NBA regular season game).

  2. Bookmaker Odds:

    • Bulls: +140 (implied probability = 100 / (140+100) = 41.67%)

    • Lakers: -160 (implied probability = 160 / (160+100) = 61.54%)

  3. Your Assessment:

    • You analyzed recent performances, injury reports, and advanced statistics (like player usage rates, plus-minus metrics). You conclude that the Bulls have a 48% chance to win.

  4. Expected Value for Bulls:

    • Probability of win (p_win) = 0.48

    • Probability of loss (p_loss) = 0.52

    • Net win for a $100 bet at +140 odds = $140

    • Net loss = -$100

  5. EV=(0.48×140)+(0.52×−100)=67.20−52.00=+$15.20EV = (0.48 \times 140) + (0.52 \times -100) = 67.20 – 52.00 = +\$15.20

The EV is positive ($15.20 for every $100 bet in this hypothetical scenario). If your research is accurate, this would be classified as a value bet. Over time, such edges—while they might vary from game to game—are the foundation of a profitable betting strategy.

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